Tuesday, 17th October, 2017

Snippets

Consensus is India’s GDP will grow between 4.09 & 4.1 percent with plus or minus 3 percent this year

12, Oct 2017 By dasu

New Delhi: If we look at the print media or electronic media the only topic that is giving stiff completion to Hrithik-Kangana fight is the prediction on India’s GDP growth for Q2 as well as the full financial year ending on March.

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When someone like Amit Shah says Q1 GDP growth of 5.7 was due to a technical issue, a senior minister like Ravi Shankar Prasad says ‘fundamentals’ of the economy are strong and we will see very good GDP growth numbers going forward. The numbers have been projected by RBI, IMF, past RBI governor C. Rangarajan, PM himself. As expected all are different.

As we all know better GDP growth number means more jobs and will leave more money in the hands of our people, so it is natural people remains excited about the number. Our team at FN went through all the statements that have come on GDP growth till now and also spoke to people who have not got time to say anything on this matter till now. What we wanted is to present a credible and accurate picture of GDP growth before the nation so that everyone in this country takes ‘informed’ decision.

Head of our GDP research team, Santosh Tiwari while sharing the number with us said, “We feel India’s GDP will grow somewhere between 4.09 and 4.1 percent in this financial year”. When we asked Santosh, how can he predict such an ‘accurate’ GDP range, he said, “Do not forget, our prediction can have deviation in the range of plus or minus three percent. We are fairly confident the final numbers will fall in the range we have predicted taking ‘deviation’ in to account”.

A senior minister told us anonymously, “Whatever the number comes, myself and as well as my other colleagues are well prepared to defend it. Suppose our number shows we are not the fastest growing in the world, we must be growing faster than some countries, some regions at least, right? We can use that to our advantage. Worst case if number is bad, we will say chief statistician to convey like RBI, ‘counting’ is not over yet”.